Grab Holdings is bracing for a 2% decline in its adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to increased regional corporate costs. This comes despite an expected 7% quarter-on-quarter rise in gross merchandise value (GMV) to $5.26 billion, driven by growth in both the Deliveries and Mobility segments. The company has downgraded its rating from “Add” to “Hold” as it foresees slower EBITDA growth in the latter half of the year, particularly in the Deliveries segment, due to weaker consumer spending.
The Deliveries segment is projected to see a 9% quarterly increase in GMV, reaching $3.4 billion, following a seasonally weaker first quarter. However, Grab’s focus on expanding its product offerings and ecosystem is expected to result in slight margin compression. The company is investing in new products like GrabFood For One and Shared Saver to boost order frequency and attract new users.
Grab’s financial services segment is expected to remain flat in Q2 2025, whilst the Mobility segment is anticipated to grow by 3% quarter-on-quarter. Despite these growth areas, the company is cautious about its earnings outlook, citing potential risks such as higher-than-expected credit losses and regional corporate costs. The current share price is believed to have already factored in the strong GMV growth, with the target price remaining at $5.20.
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