Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) experienced a remarkable 13% year-on-year increase in June, according to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research. This surge significantly surpassed Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 5%, with non-monetary gold contributing a substantial S$1.3 billion of the S$1.77 billion nominal rise. Electronics exports also saw a boost, growing by 8% year-on-year, largely due to favourable base effects.
The growth in electronics NODX was primarily driven by personal computers, integrated circuits, and disk drives. However, exports to the United States remained weak, contracting by 4.8% year-on-year. In contrast, exports to East Asian markets, particularly Taiwan and South Korea, showed resilience, reflecting demand related to artificial intelligence.
UOB’s report highlighted that Singapore’s GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was supported by the front-loading of exports and manufacturing, anticipating further US tariffs. However, the report cautioned that this momentum might not sustain in the second half of the year, as potential reciprocal tariffs from the US could dampen growth. The impact is expected to be more pronounced in trade-related services rather than manufacturing.
Despite the uncertainties, UOB maintains its full-year 2025 NODX forecast at 1.0-3.0%. The situation remains fluid due to the ongoing tariff discussions, which could influence future projections. The report underscores the importance of monitoring trade policies and their potential impact on Singapore’s export landscape.
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