Economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) have revised down the city-state’s economic growth forecast for 2025, citing global trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions as significant headwinds. The latest MAS survey, released on Wednesday, indicates a median GDP growth projection of 1.7% for this year, a decrease from the previous forecast of 2.6% and a significant drop from the 4.4% growth recorded in 2024.
The survey also adjusted the 2026 growth forecast, now expecting a 1.7% increase instead of the previously anticipated 2.3%. Geopolitical tensions and rising trade frictions were identified as the primary risks to Singapore’s economic outlook, alongside concerns about an external slowdown and tighter financial conditions.
On a more positive note, easing trade tensions and a better-than-expected external outlook, particularly in China and the US, were highlighted as potential upside risks. Additionally, a sustained upturn in the tech cycle could bolster Singapore’s economic prospects.
However, the outlook for Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports remains bleak, with annual shipments expected to rise by only 1.0%, down from the 2.8% increase predicted in March. This follows an unexpected decline in exports in May, ending a three-month growth streak.
Inflation is projected to moderate, with the headline figure expected to ease to 0.9% from the earlier forecast of 1.7%, and core inflation cooling to 0.8% from 1.5%. Manufacturing is anticipated to contract by 0.3% this year, reversing the 2.9% expansion predicted in March, whilst private consumption is expected to grow by 3.1%, slightly down from the previous 3.5% forecast.
Over half of the survey respondents anticipate further easing by the central bank at its July policy review, primarily through adjustments to the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band. The MAS survey, reflecting the views of 20 respondents, does not represent the central bank’s own forecasts.
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