KPMG International has released its Global Economic Outlook for June 2025, forecasting a significant slowdown in global GDP growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025. This deceleration is attributed to heightened geopolitical uncertainty and de-globalisation trends, which are prompting executives worldwide to adopt a ‘pause and prepare’ strategy.
The report, which draws insights from KPMG’s first-ever Global Economic Outlook webinar attended by nearly 2,000 executives, highlights that 34% of executives view macroeconomic volatility as their primary concern, whilst 30% are worried about geopolitical instability. Regina Mayor, Global Head of Clients & Markets at KPMG International, noted that “uncertainty consistently ranks as their foremost concern” among CEOs.
KPMG’s Global Geopolitics team describes the current international scenario as a ‘Critical Recession’, marking a shift from a US-dominated globalisation era to a more multipolar world. This transition is expected to impact regions like Southeast Asia significantly, with countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong potentially facing recessions due to changes in US trade policies.
In the Americas, economic growth is projected to slow to 2.7% in 2025, the weakest since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Diane Swonk, Americas Chief Economist at KPMG International, highlighted the impact of rising tariffs, which are expected to exceed 20% by year-end, contributing to a surge in the US trade deficit.
In Europe, GDP growth is anticipated to be modest, with the Eurozone expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025. Yael Selfin, European Chief Economist at KPMG International, pointed out that Europe remains vulnerable to tariff escalations, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector.
As businesses navigate these challenges, KPMG advises leaders to view geopolitical risks as strategic assets and to remain agile in adapting to the evolving global landscape.
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