The Mastercard Economics Institute has released its 2026 Outlook, revealing that Asia Pacific (APAC) remains a beacon of stability amidst global economic shifts. Despite challenges such as tariff disruptions and evolving trade routes, the region’s growth is supported by robust consumer demand, easing inflation, and a resurgence in experiential spending.
The report underscores APAC’s central role in global supply chains, even as the US imposes tariffs affecting Japan and South Asia. AI adoption is identified as a significant growth driver, with countries like South Korea, Japan, India, and Hong Kong SAR leading the charge. “Given its centrality to global trade, Asia Pacific has shown remarkable resilience,” said David Mann, chief economist for APAC at Mastercard.
Travel and experiences continue to fuel economic momentum, with outbound and intra-regional travel surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Singapore’s outbound spend in H1 2025 was US$2.7b higher than in 2019, whilst Indonesia and the Philippines saw significant growth in travel spending.
The report provides market-level forecasts, predicting growth for China at 4.5%, India at 6.6%, and Japan at 1.0%. The ASEAN-5, Australia, and New Zealand are also expected to see varied growth rates. Despite a positive outlook, the region faces risks from trade fragmentation and technological disparities. Mann emphasised the importance of adapting to these challenges, stating, “How governments and businesses respond will shape the next phase of growth.”
