RHB Bank’s Group Chief Economist, Barnabas Gan, has released a report detailing the impact of black swan risks on global and ASEAN economies. The report, dated 27 March 2026, indicates a shift in risk sentiment, with the RHB Risk Sentiment Index suggesting a return to risk-on attitudes. However, the report warns of significant challenges ahead, particularly for Singapore.
The report identifies Malaysia as the least negatively impacted economy in the ASEAN region. Malaysia’s dual role as both an importer of Middle Eastern crude oil and an oil producer with refining capabilities positions it to weather potential disruptions more effectively. “Malaysia’s economic outlook remains relatively resilient,” the report states.
Conversely, Singapore faces heightened risks due to its heavy reliance on energy imports. The report cautions that any escalation in global conflicts could severely affect Singapore’s economy. “An escalation of the conflict poses significant risks to global energy markets, with direct implications for Singapore’s highly import-dependent economy,” Gan notes.
Indonesia is expected to maintain stability, benefiting from its diversified energy sources. In contrast, Thailand may experience more pronounced effects due to its greater external dependencies and energy demands.
The report underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on regional economies. As the situation evolves, the insights provided by RHB’s economists will be crucial for stakeholders navigating these uncertain times.
