UOB’s latest Quarterly Global Outlook for Q1 2026 highlights a promising start for ASEAN economies, despite global uncertainties. The report notes that ASEAN countries are benefiting from a realignment of supply chains, boosting intra-regional trade and exports. This trend is particularly evident in sectors linked to artificial intelligence and electronics, with Malaysia and Singapore showing significant export growth.
The report underscores the strength of ASEAN currencies, which have performed well against the US dollar. This currency resilience is attributed to strong export performance and a global trend towards de-dollarisation. The People’s Bank of China’s efforts to stabilise the Renminbi have also contributed to this stability, allowing ASEAN central banks like the Monetary Authority of Singapore to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Inflation across the region remains benign, with most ASEAN economies experiencing stable price levels. This is partly due to strong regional currencies enhancing purchasing power and the influx of competitively priced goods from China. UOB anticipates ASEAN’s real GDP growth to stabilise at an average of 4.6% in the medium term, supported by continued foreign direct investment inflows, which grew by 10.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025.
Looking ahead, UOB maintains a positive outlook for ASEAN, projecting nominal foreign direct investment inflows to reach $370b by 2030 and $560b by 2035. This growth is expected to be driven by ongoing trade and investment opportunities within the region.
