Singapore’s economic growth could face significant challenges in 2025, according to a report by RHB Bank’s Group Chief Economist and Head of Market Research, Barnabas Gan. The report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 2.0% for Singapore, but highlights the risk of a downturn to between 0.5% and 1.0% if global trade tensions escalate.
The analysis indicates that a 10% tariff imposed by the US on Singaporean exports could reduce the nation’s GDP growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points. In a worst-case scenario, where tariffs rise to 20%, the impact could be as severe as a 0.6 percentage point reduction.
This situation poses a significant threat to Singapore’s export-driven sectors, particularly chemicals, machinery and transport, and manufacturing, which are expected to suffer the most from direct tariffs and the broader effects of rising trade tensions.
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