Singapore is poised to face a technical recession in the first half of 2025, according to RHB Bank’s latest Global Economics and Market Strategy Report. The report, authored by Barnabas Gan, Group Chief Economist and Head of Market Research at RHB Bank, anticipates a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction in GDP for the second quarter of 2025.
The report highlights that Singapore’s industrial production (IP) figures for March, which rose by 5.8% year-on-year, fell short of Bloomberg’s growth estimates of 8.1%. This underperformance, coupled with a revised 0.9% year-on-year rise in February, suggests a slowdown in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP growth expected to slow to 3.6% year-on-year and a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter contraction.
RHB has also revised its full-year manufacturing growth forecast for Singapore to 0.5% for 2025, whilst maintaining its full-year GDP growth projection at 2.0%, albeit with downside risks. The anticipated technical recession underscores the economic challenges Singapore may face in the coming months.
Gan’s analysis provides a crucial insight into the potential economic trajectory of Singapore, highlighting the need for strategic planning and policy adjustments to mitigate the impact of the anticipated downturn. As the situation unfolds, businesses and policymakers will need to remain vigilant and responsive to the evolving economic landscape.
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