Singapore’s trade outlook remains uncertain as RHB Bank’s latest Global Economics and Market Strategy Report predicts a flat performance for the country’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in 2025. This forecast contrasts with official expectations of a 1% to 3% growth. The report, authored by Barnabas Gan, Group Chief Economist and Head of Market Research at RHB Bank, cites an unexpected 3.5% year-on-year decline in NODX for May 2025, reversing a 12.4% increase in April and falling short of market predictions of a 7.8% rise.
Despite a 90-day pause on tariffs, the report anticipates further slowdowns in the coming months due to easing global demand and weakening consumer spending, particularly as heavier US tariffs are set to take effect in the second half of 2025. Gan emphasises the need for vigilance, noting that the current economic climate presents significant challenges for Singapore’s trade sector.
The unexpected contraction in May’s NODX figures underscores the volatility in global trade dynamics. As Singapore navigates these uncertainties, the report suggests that businesses and policymakers should remain cautious and adaptable to shifting economic conditions. The findings highlight the importance of monitoring global demand trends and preparing for potential impacts on Singapore’s export-driven economy.
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