Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) experienced a significant rise of 12.4% year-on-year in April, according to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research. This increase, which far exceeded Bloomberg’s consensus of 4.3% and UOB’s own estimate of 5.8%, was primarily driven by a surge in electronics exports, which grew by 23.5% year-on-year. The data suggests that exporters are accelerating shipments ahead of the 9 July expiry of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, amidst concerns about potential Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
The electronics sector’s robust performance was bolstered by integrated circuits and personal computers, the latter seeing an over 100% year-on-year increase. Non-electronics NODX also improved, rising by 9.3% year-on-year, with significant contributions from non-monetary gold, structures of ships and boats, and specialised machinery.
The recent easing of US-China trade tensions, which included the cancellation of retaliatory tariffs and a temporary pause on reciprocal tariffs, has opened a window for continued export and production activities. This development has been particularly beneficial for the electronics sectors in South Korea and Taiwan, which have seen renewed strength due to front-loading.
UOB has revised its full-year 2025 NODX forecast to a growth range of 2.0-4.0%, up from a previous estimate of -4.0%. However, the bank cautions that the situation remains fluid, and there may be payback effects from front-loading, potentially leading to a downturn in trade activity in 2026.
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