Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) experienced a significant increase in April, rising by 24.5% compared to the same period last year, according to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research. This marks the fourth consecutive month of growth, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase of 11.0%, surpassing both Bloomberg’s median estimate of 10.9% and UOB’s own forecast of 11.7%.
The electronics sector led the charge with a 16.1% month-on-month increase, bolstered by demand for personal computers, telecommunications equipment, and integrated circuits. This growth is attributed to the ongoing demand for AI-related technologies and their integration into consumer electronics. The Electronics Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also rose slightly to 51.7, indicating positive future prospects.
Pharmaceutical exports saw an even more dramatic rise, with a 90.2% month-on-month increase. This surge is partly due to front-loading in anticipation of the US’s impending tariffs on selected pharmaceuticals, set to take effect later this year. Meanwhile, petrochemical exports showed resilience despite a modest decline of 6.9% following a strong performance in March.
UOB’s report suggests that the K-shaped growth pattern in NODX is likely to continue, with electronics and semiconductors maintaining strong performance. However, non-electronics exports may face challenges due to supply shortages and rising energy prices. Despite signs of a potential peak in the electronics cycle, UOB believes it is premature to declare one, given the continued strength in semiconductor exports from key markets like South Korea.
