Southeast Asia is set to deliver less than one-third of its planned gas-fired power capacity by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie. The research highlights that only 14.9 gigawatts (GW) of the anticipated 53 GW will be operational, as turbine shortages, financing issues, and growing dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) hinder progress.
The report, “Is Southeast Asia Being Gaslighted? A Deep Dive Into Southeast Asia’s Gas-to-Power Market,” reveals that only 11 GW of the planned capacity has secured gas turbines, with the rest facing delivery lead times of at least five years. Alvin Tan, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, noted, “The challenge today is not planning power projects but executing them.”
Vietnam faces the largest gap, with only 3.7 GW of its targeted 29.4 GW expected to come online by 2030. Malaysia is extending existing capacity to manage risks, whilst Indonesia struggles with equipment constraints, securing turbines for only 200 megawatts (MW) of its planned 8.4 GW. Singapore, although better positioned, will face challenges in its next procurement round for hydrogen-ready generation capacity.
The Philippines and Thailand also face significant hurdles. The Philippines is projected to deliver only 0.4 GW of new capacity against a 2 GW target, whilst Thailand must manage an oversupplied system with only 0.5 GW expected from a 1.4 GW target.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that Southeast Asia will become a net gas importer by 2033, with LNG meeting over 80% of regional demand by 2050. This shift adds complexity to the region’s energy transition, challenging the role of gas in future energy security.
