Southeast Asia’s e-commerce market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with projections indicating it will reach nearly US$400b by 2031, according to the latest Ecommerce Payments Momentum Report by Xendit and Cube. The report highlights a significant 33% year-on-year increase in Q1 2026, driven by major platforms such as Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop, which collectively boosted their quarterly merchandise value to US$39b.
This growth outpaces previous estimates, with Momentum Works having predicted a 22.8% increase for 2025, and the last e-Conomy SEA report forecasting a 15% rise. The report also provides the first public insights into 2026, ahead of e-Conomy’s next edition due in November.
Key findings include the dominance of cross-border e-commerce, with Singapore leading at 19%, followed by Thailand at 15% and Vietnam at 14%. The report also examines consumer behaviour, noting that Singapore’s card-heavy market sees long checkout processes as the primary reason for cart abandonment, whilst missing payment options are the main issue elsewhere, particularly in Indonesia.
The decline of cash-on-delivery (COD) is another trend, with its share dropping from nearly half of transactions in 2019 to under a third today, and expected to fall below 25% by 2027. Replacement payment methods vary by country, with Singapore favouring cards, Indonesia opting for e-wallets, and Vietnam seeing a rise in VietQR transactions.
Additionally, the report notes that 53% of shoppers are already using generative AI for product searches, with the first AI agent-completed purchase anticipated in 2027. Xendit’s President, Nazim Ali, is available for further insights into these developments.
