Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) experienced a remarkable increase of 68.4% year-on-year in September, significantly exceeding the Bloomberg consensus projection of 32.2%. This surge was primarily driven by a substantial rise in non-electronics exports, which jumped 58.4% month-on-month, according to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research.
The notable growth in non-electronics exports was attributed to “lumpy exports of ship and boat structures” and non-monetary gold, as stated by Enterprise Singapore. Excluding these nominal increases, NODX would have still risen by 36.1% year-on-year. In contrast, electronics exports saw a modest decline of 6.5% month-on-month, following two months of strong growth.
Within the electronics sector, integrated circuits, personal computers, and disk drives experienced softer demand, reflecting a broader resilience despite the decline. Meanwhile, the non-electronics sector saw a sharp contraction in pharmaceuticals but a positive surprise in petrochemicals, which grew by 9.9% month-on-month amidst ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Looking ahead, UOB anticipates that electronics NODX will remain resilient through 2026 and into early 2027, supported by robust order books and depleting inventory levels. However, the bank expects AI-related growth to moderate in the second half of 2027, influenced by higher global interest rates and a potential slowdown in global AI-related capital expenditure growth.
