Singapore’s economy experienced a significant boost in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP growth revised to 6% year-on-year, up from the initial estimate of 4.6%. This revision, announced by UOB Global Economics and Markets Research, surpassed both Bloomberg’s consensus and UOB’s own expectations. The upward adjustment was attributed to robust performance across key sectors, particularly manufacturing, construction, and services, which benefited from sustained AI-related tailwinds.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) has maintained its 2026 growth forecast range at 2.0% to 4.0%, citing the strong first-quarter performance and ongoing global AI capital spending as key drivers. The manufacturing sector, in particular, saw a notable increase, with growth revised to 7.9% from 5.0% in the advance estimates, reflecting a surge in electronics and precision engineering.
Despite the positive outlook, MTI acknowledged potential risks, including supply disruptions from the ongoing US–Israel–Iran conflict, which could impact energy and petrochemical inputs. These disruptions have already begun to exert inflationary pressures, potentially affecting real incomes and consumption.
Looking ahead, UOB has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%, up from 2.5%, supported by continued AI-related growth in the electronics sector. However, the forecast remains subject to significant risks, particularly regarding the duration and impact of Middle East supply disruptions. The economic outlook for key markets such as China, the US, and the Eurozone remains cautious, with varying growth expectations influenced by external demand and inflationary pressures.
