Singapore’s economy is poised for robust growth in the third quarter of 2026, driven by strong performances in manufacturing and finance, according to a report by UOB Global Economics and Markets Research. The report highlights that monthly activity indicators up to August have remained resilient, with Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) and Non-Oil Re-exports (NORX) showing significant year-on-year increases of 24.6% and 45.3%, respectively, bolstered by AI-related advancements.
The manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors, which contribute approximately 34-35% to the nation’s GDP, are expected to expand at a healthy pace. This growth is supported by firms drawing down inventories to meet new orders, with replenishment anticipated to further boost electronics manufacturing. The finance and insurance sector, accounting for 13-14% of GDP, also remains robust, with commercial banking loan growth accelerating to 14.3% year-on-year in July and August.
However, the report notes a slowdown in the transport and storage sector, with softer air cargo tonnage and port container throughput. Consumer-facing sectors such as retail and food and beverage have also contracted, but their impact on overall GDP growth is limited due to their smaller contribution.
UOB projects a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth and a 5.2% year-on-year increase for the upcoming third-quarter GDP estimates, expected on 14 October. Assuming a below-trend growth in the fourth quarter, the full-year GDP growth for 2026 is anticipated to reach 5.5%, surpassing UOB’s earlier forecast of 5.0%. The bank plans to review its projections following the release of the third-quarter estimates.
