Singapore’s retail sales growth forecast for 2026 has been upgraded to 3% by RHB Bank, following an unexpected surge in April’s figures. Retail sales expanded by 5.4% year-on-year in April, surpassing Bloomberg’s anticipated 4.4% growth, and marking a 0.3% month-on-month increase. This brings the year-to-date growth to 4.3%.
Despite the positive revision, Barnabas Gan, Group Chief Economist and Head of Market Research at RHB Bank, cautions that the momentum is expected to slow in the latter half of the year. “We are cautious on discretionary demand, especially in department stores, recreational goods, watches and jewellery, and furniture and household equipment,” Gan noted. However, essential sales in food are likely to provide some support, whilst high fuel prices are expected to boost petrol services receipts nominally.
The report highlights the mixed outlook for different retail sectors, with discretionary spending facing challenges, whilst essential goods and services may offer stability. This nuanced view reflects broader economic trends and consumer behaviour in Singapore, as the nation navigates a complex economic landscape.
As the year progresses, the retail sector will be closely monitored for any shifts in consumer spending patterns, which could impact future forecasts and economic strategies.
